It’s been over 60 years since Walt Disney took a fateful flight over an undeveloped part of Central Florida and determined that he needed to place a sprawling theme park there. At this time, the Orlando metro space is the most-visited vacation spot in america, with its tourism trade producing an financial affect of greater than $92 billion in 2023.
Disney’s namesake firm, after all, now not has that balmy taking part in area all to itself. For many years, it’s competed with Common Studios for its share of Orlando vacationers—a fierce rivalry that hit a brand new plateau final month with the opening of Common Epic Universe, a 750-acre mega-park that includes 5 distinct “worlds,” together with these based mostly on common mental property reminiscent of Harry Potter and Nintendo.
Epic Universe marks Orlando’s first main theme park 25 years, opening a brand new entrance within the battle between Disney and NBCUniversal proprietor Comcast to win the hearts, minds, and {dollars} of the area’s park-goers.
A giant query looming over the opening of Epic Universe is the way it will affect the choices of vacationers and households who plan to go to the Orlando space now and within the coming years. Will extra households forego the notably family-friendly Disney World in favor of what Epic has to supply—or will Common’s new park merely siphon off guests who would have in any other case attended one other Common park?
One option to predict future traits is by previous park openings, recognized within the trade as “gates,” in keeping with Carissa Baker, an assistant professor on the College of Central Florida and a longtime researcher of theme parks.
“What we’ve got seen up to now is that there’s a little bit of cannibalization from the parks that the prevailing firm has,” Baker advised Quick Firm. “So even when Disney has opened their newer gates, there’s generally just a little little bit of drop-off from their current gates, as a result of most company are usually not going to do each single park in Orlando in a single single go to.”
The Florida tasks
Orlando attracted 75.3 million guests final 12 months, in keeping with the Go to Orlando tourism affiliation. That’s a rise of 1.8% over the 12 months earlier than, and practically even with pre-pandemic highs. A lot of the space’s guests come from elsewhere in america, whereas greater than 30% are Florida residents.
Though inflation and more moderen financial instability may have a damaging affect on general customer progress within the years head, one factor Orlando’s theme parks have going for them is that households are likely to plan their holidays lengthy prematurely.
“These are vacation spot parks,” Baker stated. “The common household doesn’t go to those parks yearly.”
In a analysis observe on Could 22, analyst agency MoffettNathanson expressed doubts a couple of substantial affect to Disney from Epic Universe, though the affect gained’t be negligible, both.
The agency estimates that Epic may see 5.2 million guests this 12 months and 9.2 million subsequent 12 months, in comparison with an estimated 54.9 million for Disney throughout each years. It tasks a modest year-over-year lower in Common’s different parks, from 18.9 million in 2025 to 18.4 million in 2026.
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In different phrases, Disney’s attendance is projected to be flat whereas Common may see a bump from Epic, no less than initially. “Given robust early reception throughout previews and stable ahead bookings steerage, we predict Epic is off to a robust begin,” MoffettNathanson analysts wrote.
Each corporations have invested closely in theme parks in recent times. In 2023, the Walt Disney Firm introduced it could double its capital expenditures for its Parks, Experiences, and Merchandise phase to roughly $60 billion over the following 10 years. In the meantime, NBCUniversal spent greater than $10 billion on new and current Common locations in California, Florida, Texas, and Nevada between 2018 and 2024, in keeping with Comcast.
Crucially for Disney, MoffettNathanson additionally identified how Epic Universe’s Nintendo and How one can Practice Your Dragon worlds may enchantment to households with youthful kids, a demographic historically dominated by Disney. “Comcast’s ambition is clearly to take share of trip time with these households,” the analysts wrote.
Baker, who had already been to Epic Universe seven instances once we spoke earlier this month, stated its enchantment with guests was maybe most evident with the immersive Tremendous Nintendo World, which additional leverages a profitable decade-long partnership between Common and the online game maker. Equally themed worlds are already up and working in theme parks in Japan and California.
“It’s very, very talked-about,” Baker stated. “Individuals are simply lined in Nintendo merchandise . . . Each time I’ve been in there, it’s been fairly crowded.”
