This week’s Way forward for TV Briefing appears to be like on the tensions effervescent up within the TV advert market as some TV networks press Nielsen to postpone its choice to deprecate panel-only measurement.
A measurement mess
Probably one of many extra contentious conferences of this 12 months’s upfront cycle occurred on June 12. That was when greater than two dozen TV community executives and business commerce group VAB sat down with Nielsen.
For the previous 12 months, a number of the TV networks had been complaining about inconsistencies in Nielsen’s new “large information plus panel” measurement system in comparison with its legacy panel-only measurement system. However they felt like their complaints had been falling on deaf ears. So VAB — whose members embrace Disney, NBCUniversal and Paramount — set the assembly with Nielsen.
“The negotiative course of within the upfront was being impeded by numbers that lots of our members thought, you understand, regarded simply flat-out flawed,” mentioned VAB president and CEO Sean Cunningham.
“In that assembly, there was acknowledgement that there are unpredictable peaks and valleys. That’s the phrases that have been used,” mentioned a TV community government.
As Digiday has reported lately, the viewers measurement comparisons between Nielsen’s large information plus panel and its legacy panel-based measurements have been fluctuating. Not all networks are up in arms over the measurement inconsistencies. Bigger TV community teams have seen the ups and downs largely cancel themselves out throughout channels, based on TV community and company executives. It’s the TV community teams with comparatively smaller footprints in addition to these with a better share of multicultural audiences that appear to have been most affected.
TelevisaUnivision, for instance, had earlier seen a 20-30% improve in its viewers when utilizing large information plus panel, however lately that flipped to a adverse delta, Cunningham mentioned. A TelevisaUnivision spokesperson declined to remark.
“I talked to the top of gross sales [at a different, mid-sized TV network owner] about it, and [that person] was like, ‘That [lower audience count] will put us out of enterprise in two years. We’ll be fucked,’” mentioned an company government.
A second TV community government put it a bit extra calmly: “I don’t need to base my enterprise on dangerous math.”
Nielsen’s large information plus panel would be the de facto foreign money serving as the idea for upfront offers this 12 months, with its legacy panel-only measurement being deprecated as a foreign money choice after 2025. So it’s not precisely a shocker that TV networks wouldn’t be psyched concerning the unfavorable comparisons. Particularly for the reason that costs set in opposition to the brand new foreign money this 12 months will successfully set the inspiration for a way TV and streaming advertisements are priced within the upfront for years to come back.
Companies have points too
Nevertheless it’s not solely TV networks taking challenge with Nielsen’s choice to lastly pull the set off on the measurement foreign money changeover.
In a separate assembly final month the day earlier than the assembly between Nielsen and the TV networks, executives from main companies and the Media Score Council met with Nielsen concerning the foreign money changeover. They’d an identical agenda to the TV networks. “Initially the intent was to place strain on Nielsen to delay the phasing-out of panel-only,” mentioned a second company government.
“Our issues have been much less concerning the high quality of huge information and extra the concept that Nielsen was dictating that there may solely be one foreign money. It was going to be this new foreign money earlier than we had an opportunity to totally vet it and get it to a secure place,” mentioned a 3rd company government.
The company executives do have qualms with the information high quality, although. Out-of-home measurement is a sore level, and Nielsen has been delayed in reporting measurements for native TV viewership, based on company executives.
“The native rollout of huge information has occurred too quick, and that has created some issues,” mentioned the second company government.
“There was lots of pushback. However Nielsen got here again and mentioned they weren’t altering course, and large information goes to proceed to be the only real foreign money transferring ahead,” mentioned the third company government.
Nielsen’s stance
Yup. Regardless of all of the sturm und drang, Nielsen has opted to stay to its plan to deprecate its panel-only measurement this 12 months.
“Huge Knowledge + Panel is one of the best, most correct approach to measure TV. We requested and listened to our prospects and the overwhelming majority of them – and the business – have instructed us {that a} hybrid mannequin, consisting of Huge Knowledge and Panel, is the best way ahead for precisely capturing viewing. We proceed to closely spend money on our panel and shoppers will be capable to entry two years price of panel information to assist information and inform their future planning,” mentioned a Nielsen spokesperson in an emailed assertion.
That final line is price spending a while on. It goals to handle two of the primary arguments that executives from TV networks and VAB made to me when reporting this piece.
1) They mentioned that Nielsen had not offered two years’ price of information for TV networks to make use of to set baselines for the foreign money changeover. Nielsen says it has.
2) They mentioned that Nielsen won’t present panel-only information after this 12 months for networks to make use of as a comparative foundation in opposition to the massive information plus panel measurement. Nielsen says it’s going to.
The second company government individually mentioned that Nielsen has offered two years’ price of impression information and that its panel-only information will likely be made obtainable after this 12 months, simply not by means of transaction techniques like Mediaocean, which – crucially – would enable that information to proceed for use as a foreign money going ahead.
However that doesn’t make the TV networks’ arguments moot. Nielsen’s measurements which might be set to be the idea of TV advert buys transferring ahead have been inconsistent. That two years’ of information that Nielsen has been offering? It’s the information that the networks have been saying is inconsistent and thereby unreliable.
“We’re out there proper now, and as was written by [Digiday senior media buying editor Michael Bürgi], that has stalled negotiations. Not as a result of the purchase facet and the promote facet are arguing with one another. Either side try to cope with how can we predict the subsequent 12 months’s viewers once we’re getting numbers during the last 12 months which might be bouncing up and down with no sample of consistency,” mentioned the primary TV community government.
A case examine in inconsistency
Case in additional level: Nielsen has had points with its family demographic task mannequin – which makes use of Nielsen’s personal and third-party information to find out the demographic make-up of households – for the 25 to 54 year-old age group. Nielsen had labored up an HDAM enhancement to handle the problem. It instructed prospects a number of occasions that it could be sharing the corresponding information for the month of April on July 10. On June 25, it despatched a memo saying that the timing was on observe. On July 8, it reiterated the plan, saying that the information can be made obtainable in its NPower analytics software on July 11. However in a memo despatched to prospects on July 10 and shared with Digiday by an individual who requested to stay nameless, Nielsen has opted to not go ahead with the enhancement.
“Nielsen doesn’t plan to pursue an implementation of an HDAM enhancement at the moment and won’t be releasing the information in NPOWER. In reviewing the information, we’re additional satisfied that HDAM shouldn’t be driving important variations in demographics between panel solely and large information + panel companies. Moreover, the overwhelming suggestions from the business is a necessity for consistency and time to plan for change — we imagine it’s incumbent on us to offer consistency at this level within the shopping for cycle and take further time to discover future enhancements to the foreign money — avoiding piecemeal enhancements that may add extra disruption than profit,” Nielsen wrote within the memo.
In case your eyes misplaced focus whereas studying by means of all that, right here’s the basis motive that Nielsen shouldn’t be going ahead with the HDAM enhancement: It could have created extra inconsistency out there. Which isn’t to say {that a} repair isn’t wanted. It’s simply, per Nielsen’s judgment, not the suitable time for it.
Or as VAB’s Cunningham put it, “It’s primarily Nielsen saying ‘Simply use the clearly suspect and partial information we already despatched… whereas we punt on our four-time promise to offer even a month of HDAM-illuminating impression information.’”
Options?
OK, soooo what concerning the different currencies? If some TV networks are so upset at Nielsen, why not uproot themselves and transfer en masse to undertake Comscore or iSpot or VideoAmp as their foreign money of alternative on this 12 months’s upfront? I imply, the three did simply obtain a recent new stamp of approval from the U.S. Joint Business Committee that counts many, although not all, main TV community house owners and company holding firms as members.
Effectively, for one factor, it’s probably not as much as them; it’s as much as the companies and advertisers. And 6 main companies plus one main advertiser lately reupped their multi-year offers to make use of Nielsen’s large information plus panel measurement, per a Nielsen spokesperson. However for one more factor, it’s not like there aren’t points with these different measurement suppliers (if at this level you’ve clocked a number of makes use of of double-negatives on this story, that’s intentional).
“The uncertainty that we see from the information exists in every single place,” mentioned the second company government. “Whichever manner you go, whether or not it’s VideoAmp, Comscore, iSpot.” Or Nielsen.
The 2025 TV measurement panorama, everyone.
What we’ve heard
“There’s virtually no center class anymore.”
— Expertise supervisor Paul Desisto of PD Expertise on the creator economic system’s middle-class crunch
The trendy creator profession path
Final month I went to VidCon with one query in thoughts: Twenty years after YouTube’s debut, what does the present profession trajectory appear like for creators? To reply it, I interviewed creators throughout the spectrum, from some up-and-comers simply launching their YouTube channels to the likes of Legendary Leisure’s Rhett & Hyperlink and Smosh’s Ian Hecox who launched theirs twenty years in the past. Take a look at the video beneath for what they needed to say.
Numbers to know
41%: Proportion share of advert impressions which might be duplicative throughout CTV and conventional TV.
$84 million: How a lot cash AI video startup Moonvalley has raised from buyers together with Comcast and CAA.
~50%: Proportion share of most-watched streaming reveals represented by Netflix, down from 80%+ in 2021.
What we’ve lined
Creator economic system growth leaves mid-tier creators behind:
- Greater than 1.5 million individuals within the U.S. work full-time as creator, up 7.5x since 2020.
- Manufacturers are looking for out smaller, extra area of interest creators, particularly amid the financial downturn.
Learn extra concerning the creator economic system right here.
Esports occasions are placing creators middle stage:
- The Esports World Cup began throughout the previous week and has 22 sponsors.
- Spotify is without doubt one of the sponsors and has created a devoted hub for creators to make content material on-site.
Learn extra about esports right here.
Creator advertising and marketing has the attain — CMOs need the rigor:
- Tripadvisor is having its companies assist to handle its influencer advertising and marketing.
- Within the U.S., a 3rd of entrepreneurs are spending between $1 million and $3 million every year on influencer advertising and marketing.
Learn extra about creator advertising and marketing right here.
What we’re studying
Apple’s F1 bid:
The iPhone maker has supplied to pay $150 million per 12 months to safe U.S. streaming rights for Method 1 races beginning subsequent 12 months, almost double what ESPN is presently paying, based on Puck.
YouTube’s AI slop sweep:
YouTube has up to date its monetization insurance policies to crack down on “inauthentic” movies, i.e. AI slop, creator rip-offs and different mass-produced programming designed to spam the platform for views, based on TechCrunch.
Video platforms vs. the Turing take a look at:
Meta, TikTok and YouTube are aggressively some movies as AI-generated whereas permitting others which might be AI-generated, together with advertisements, to go although with out correct disclosure, based on The Wall Road Journal.
Netflix vs. YouTube:
The 2 streaming companies have separated themselves from the pack relating to TV watch time and have emerged as one another’s closest rival, particularly with Netflix licensing programming from YouTube creators, based on The New York Occasions.
