TikTok’s future within the U.S. is turning into much less murky however readability doesn’t imply consolation for entrepreneurs.
What’s rising is a possible situation the place a brand new, domestically-owned model of the app runs on a licensed copy of TikTok’s core algorithm — primarily, TikTok U.S.
For entrepreneurs, that creates extra confusion than closure. A break up app actuality brings logistical complications — two platforms, duplicate methods, unclear viewers migration. However the larger query is financial: how a lot price range does a TikTok clone deserve, and who will get to resolve what’s price paying for when the mud settles?
“Except this new app permits some cross-platform integrations just like how Meta has with Fb, Instagram, and so on. then it may very well be fairly troublesome and cumbersome for advertisers to focus on one market utilizing one app and one other for remainder of world,” stated Shamsul Chowdhury, world evp paid social at Jellyfish.
Later’s CEO Scott Sutton had an analogous take.
“Having a separate app creates points as a result of you may’t as simply goal prospects globally,” he stated. “It’s not easy to take a look at these as two totally different geographies, as a result of the info will all be migrated and fully separate. We’ll need to arrange separate campaigns on the U.S. model of TikTok after which the preexisting model.”
TikTok execs, conscious of the mounting unease, have began laying the groundwork to get forward of it — or a minimum of appear like they’re.
Chowdhury famous that beforehand, TikTok stated the adverts supervisor received’t be impacted by the app — which means modifications will solely influence the entrance finish utilized by customers, not the again finish adverts platform utilized by advertisers.
“Worst case situation [if the ads platform is impacted], we’ll use VPNs just like how we do now for groups in India managing TikTok campaigns,” he added.
However it’s not nearly logistics. It’s about scale. As issues stand, TikTok has recorded 170 million month-to-month lively customers within the U.S. — the platform’s largest market. Underneath the brand new deal, these present customers can be anticipated to shift over to this new U.S.-specific app. Entrepreneurs are watching to see if they really do. With out the customers, the algorithm — licensed or not — doesn’t imply a lot. A brand new app has to earn consideration at scale. And till it does, advert {dollars} will sit tight.
“Asking customers to maneuver to the brand new U.S. app — that’s a toss-up,” stated Traci Asbury, social funding lead at Goodway Group. “If we realized something from RedNote’s rush of U.S. adopters, it’s that true TikTok customers wish to keep linked and have a constructive world expertise.”
For sure, there’s nonetheless plenty of uncertainty entrepreneurs are having to get their head round.
“We’ll need to deploy our groups to spend so much of assets on this could TikTok have a brand new U.S. app model,” stated Sutton. “There’s plenty of work we’ll be doing on the backend to verify our purchasers are totally supported on TikTok — it doesn’t matter what that end result seems to be like.”
All of that is touchdown on the worst attainable time: This fall. The busiest quarter of the yr now comes with a high-stakes platform pivot.
“This [new U.S. TikTok app] would have some critical impacts to investments, particularly since it is a new platform with unproven outcomes,” stated Chowdhury. “I wouldn’t be shocked if budgets funnel into the tried and examined platforms equivalent to Google and Meta due to this variation.”
Long term planning is simply as unsure. Entrepreneurs are nonetheless spending on TikTok in the present day, however the horizon is hazy.
Colleen Fielder, enterprise outcomes accomplice at Foundation Applied sciences famous that whereas her workforce is assured in investing in TikTok proper now, long-term planning is much much less sure. So constructing campaigns round TikTok in 2026 requires extra readability in regards to the U.S. app.
“We’d seemingly pause the spend as soon as we get nearer to the precise date of the transition after which wade in rigorously as the brand new model is adopted for US customers,” she stated.
Asbury shared an analogous perspective. “If account setup or administration modifications with the brand new app, there could also be a short lived dip [to budgets],” she stated. “However the onus can be on TikTok engineers to simplify the method and reassure advertisers.”
By the point this text was revealed, TikTok hadn’t taken any proactive method to achieve out to advertisers to reassure them about any subsequent steps — a minimum of not but. As an alternative, the platform continued its stoic “nothing to see right here”, enterprise as ordinary demeanor.
That received’t maintain for lengthy. Entrepreneurs will need solutions, beginning with the one factor they’ve all the time cared about: the algorithm. Is it actually the identical? And extra importantly, will it nonetheless ship?
“We have now to contemplate the algorithmic high quality within the rebuild, the migration of present content material and stats, the API protection and modifications on prime of the absence of preexisting information,” Sutton stated. “TikTok is and has been a serious channel for manufacturers investing within the creator economic system, and a brand new app means ranging from scratch for advertisers, platforms like us, and for creators themselves.”
Fielder agreed. “From an promoting perspective, a brand new app would seemingly imply retraining algorithms from scratch, resetting person habits information, and disrupting campaigns — all of which might seemingly have an effect on efficiency,” she stated.
It’s one to observe. Not least as a result of the algorithm licensing deal is a transfer that appears to have taken everybody abruptly, together with U.S. Home China Panel chair, John Moolenaar. He posted his reservations on X, because it nonetheless doesn’t appear to really handle the nationwide safety issues that have been all the time in query.
“I’m involved the reported licensing deal could contain ongoing reliance by the brand new TikTok on a ByteDance algorithm and software that might enable continued CCP [Chinese Communist Party] management or affect,” he posted.
TikTok didn’t reply to Digiday’s request for remark.
