The Dow Jones Industrial Common gapped as much as a brand new intraday excessive on the opening bell Friday and simply missed a brand new all-time closing excessive on the power of 1 beaten-down well being care inventory. Incoming financial information proceed to paint a murky macro image with a important sector set to report earnings subsequent week.
The Census Bureau mentioned retail gross sales have been 0.5% increased in July in comparison with June and grew 3.9% 12 months over 12 months. June gross sales development was revised from 0.6% to 0.9%.
“The economic system could also be slowing,” writes Morgan Stanley Wealth Administration Chief Financial Strategist Ellen Zentner, “however shoppers continued to do their half to maintain it buzzing final month.”
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In the meantime, preliminary College of Michigan Surveys of Customers information tells us sentiment was 5% decrease in August, the primary decline for this “delicate” set of numbers in 4 months.
At 58.6, the Index of Shopper Sentiment is at its lowest stage since Might. In accordance with Surveys of Customers Director Joanne Hsu, “This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation.”
Amid a break between shopper habits and shopper sentiment in addition to still-emerging inflation indicators, the Federal Reserve will give attention to the “most employment” a part of its twin mandate.
“The labor market will doubtless stay entrance and heart between now and September 17,” Zentner notes. “Whereas the concept of a 50-basis-point lower was overblown, the Fed continues to be on observe to decrease charges for the primary time this 12 months.”
The subsequent Fed assembly is just not till September 16-17. However Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues – together with a number of candidates to be the following Fed chair – will collect subsequent week for the Jackson Gap Financial Symposium.
CME FedWatch reveals the chance of a 25-basis-point lower to federal funds vary following the September assembly at 84.9% as of August 15, down from 92.1% on August 14.
By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Common was holding onto a 0.1% acquire at 44,946, setting its first new all-time report of 2025 and ending the week up 1.7%.
The Nasdaq Composite misplaced 0.4% for the day to 21,623, however the tech-heavy index closed the week with a acquire of 0.8%. The broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.3% for the day at 6,449 whereas including 0.9% over the 5 days via Friday.
Why Buffett and Tepper are shopping for UNH inventory
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is now formally a member of the Berkshire Hathaway fairness portfolio, in keeping with the latest 13F submitting from Warren Buffett’s holding firm.
Buffett and Berkshire revealed the acquisition of greater than 5 million shares of the largest medical health insurance firm within the U.S. from April to June. The place was valued at roughly $1.6 billion as of the tip of the quarter.
As Bloomberg stories, David Tepper’s Appaloosa Administration additionally sees worth within the blue chip inventory. The billionaire and his hedge fund revealed a 2.3 million-share enhance of their UNH stake at a complete price of $764 million.
As of June 30, UNH accounted for 11.9% of Appaloosa’s $6.45 billion inventory portfolio and was its second-largest holding behind China-based Alibaba Group (BABA). (However the Tepper/Appaloosa filling reveals a normal pullback from the Center Kingdom.)
UNH has dragged the world’s oldest inventory market gauge into the pink all by itself a number of instances in 2025. However the beleaguered insurer was No. 1 among the many 30 Dow Jones shares Friday.
It was additionally the distinction between a combined day and across-the-board detrimental returns for the principle fairness benchmarks. Buffett and Berkshire (and Tepper and Appaloosa) purchased it on the dip – do you have to purchase UNH inventory too?
Huge field retailers put together to report
Subsequent week’s earnings calendar is dominated by big-box retailers Dwelling Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Goal (TGT) and Walmart (WMT). Walmart, particularly, will appeal to widespread consideration from traders, merchants and speculators.
“Given WMT’s outsized position within the U.S. retail panorama,” writes UBS analyst Michael Lasser in an August 6 analysis word, “the market will intently dissect its earnings print and commentary for any insights into pricing, habits, and aggressive dynamics.”
Lasser, who has a Purchase ranking and a $110 12-month goal value for WMT inventory, sees different macro implications within the report from the largest retailer on the earth. “The market additionally will take note of the well being of the buyer in gentle of current value hikes throughout retail,” Lasser observes.
“Particularly, we expect WMT’s 2Q print will underscore that shopper demand has remained regular to this point,” he concludes. “It additionally ought to sign that tariff-related pricing was not a significant driver within the quarter.”
