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In early October, a publish on X by FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller caught my consideration:
Talking with a house builder final evening (Chattanooga, TN):
Excessive-demand within the low-end of the market (<$300k), as folks need to improve from renting. Can't construct sufficient.
Nearly no demand in center market ($300k-700k), because it tends to be the improve market and the consumers…
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 4, 2025
Whereas Fuller’s narrative rings true in some pockets of the nation, it isn’t the case all over the place. The dynamics he describes—sturdy demand on the low finish, softness within the center—replicate sure regional realities, however not essentially what’s unfolding throughout the broader Southeast housing market.
In line with my reporting and analysis, there’s at present quite a lot of variation by worth tier. A number of Southeast homebuilders have instructed me they’ve truly seen higher softening within the entry-level section over the previous 12 months—the very section many builders have been chasing. Some rolled out smaller flooring plans or trimmed sq. footage to entice priced-out homebuyers, however these efforts at the moment are assembly slower demand. In the meantime, the upper tiers have held up higher.
A part of that cooling stems from easy oversupply and stretched affordability. Builders throughout the Southeast ramped up manufacturing of smaller, sub-$350,000 properties in 2023 and early 2024. However elevated insurance coverage premiums, rising property taxes, and family finances fatigue have since taken a toll, particularly in Florida and elements of Georgia.
This month, I launched the ResiClub Terminal—a brand new platform that features evaluation by home-price tier: lower-tier (fifth to thirty fifth percentile), middle-tier (thirty fifth to sixty fifth percentile), and upper-tier (sixty fifth to ninety fifth percentile) properties, all damaged out by market. That tiered knowledge confirms what Southeast builders are reporting: The decrease finish of the market has proven the best weak spot over the previous 12 months throughout a lot of the area.
Decrease-tier dwelling worth year-over-year change 👇
Higher-tier dwelling worth year-over-year change 👇
Throughout the ResiClub Terminal, ResiClub PRO members can click on on particular person markets to see this knowledge all the way down to a neighborhood degree. For instance:
Decrease-tier dwelling costs are down 7.5% 12 months over 12 months in DeKalb County, Georgia.
Higher-tier dwelling costs are down 0.9% 12 months over 12 months in DeKalb County, Georgia.
Once you zoom out and have a look at this on a nationally aggregated foundation, the upper-tier, middle-tier, and lower-tier stats are all fairly shut.
- Higher tier: -0.1%
- Center tier: +0.2%
- Decrease tier: +0.6%
The truth that present housing market dynamics by worth tier are practically an identical on a nationally aggregated foundation—regardless of vital underlying variation—is a reminder that it’s essential for housing stakeholders to have correct, localized data.
