Within the Marshall Islands, the place the land averages solely 7 toes (2 meters) above sea degree, individuals are conscious about local weather change.
Their ancestors have lived on this string of Pacific islands for hundreds of years. However as sea degree rises, storms extra simply flood communities and farmland with saltwater. Warming ocean water has triggered mass coral-bleaching occasions, harming habitats which are necessary for each tourism and fish that the islands’ economic system depends on.
If the world fails to rein within the greenhouse gasoline emissions driving local weather change, research recommend low-lying islands like these might be uninhabitable inside a long time.
Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine talks about local weather dangers to her homeland whereas in New York for the United Nations Common Meeting in September 2025.
Local weather change isn’t only a drawback for islands. Nations worldwide are experiencing intensifying storms, harmful warmth waves, and rising seas as world temperatures rise.
But, after 30 years of worldwide local weather talks, 10 years of a world treaty promising to maintain temperatures in verify, and trillions of {dollars} in harm, the world remains to be not on observe to cease rising world temperatures. Greenhouse gasoline emissions have been at document highs in 2024, and it was Earth’s hottest yr on document.
I research the dynamics of world environmental politics, together with the United Nations local weather negotiations. And my lab and I’ve been monitoring nations’ newest local weather pledges—generally known as nationally decided contributions, or NDCs—to see which nations have stepped up their efforts, which have slid again, and who has concepts that may ship a safer world for everybody.
Whereas the Trump administration has been pressuring nations to again away from their local weather commitments—and succeeded in delaying an Worldwide Maritime Group vote on a world plan to tax greenhouse gasoline emissions from transport after threatening different nations with sanctions, visa restrictions, and port charges in the event that they supported it—many nations are nonetheless urgent forward.
Trump agitates, however many nations are steadfast
U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration got here into workplace vowing to eradicate local weather laws and increase the fossil gasoline business, derided issues about local weather change in his Sept. 23, 2025, speech to the U.N. Common Meeting. He known as local weather change the “biggest con job ever perpetuated” and ridiculed inexperienced vitality and local weather science.
Trump’s language not surprises world leaders, although. Greater than 100 different nations introduced new local weather commitments throughout a high-level summit a couple of days later.
China, at the moment the world’s largest greenhouse gasoline emitter, was lauded for hitting its inexperienced vitality targets 5 years early. Its speedy enlargement of low-cost renewable vitality and electrical automobile manufacturing has diminished air pollution in Chinese language cities whereas additionally boosting its economic system and increasing the federal government’s affect world wide.
Chinese language President Xi Jinping introduced the nation’s first absolute emissions discount objective on the summit, committing to chop its internet greenhouse gasoline emissions by 7% to 10% from peak ranges by 2035. China additionally dedicated to almost triple its photo voltaic and wind energy capability and increase reforestation efforts.
Whereas advocates and different governments had hoped for a stronger announcement from China, the brand new targets mark an necessary shift from the nation’s earlier carbon depth targets, which aimed to lower the quantity of greenhouse gasoline emissions per unit of financial output however nonetheless allowed emissions to develop over time.
[Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND. Source: International Energy Agency, created with Datawrapper]
The European Union has but to submit its new commitments, however the group of 27 European nations delivered a letter of intent, saying it could decide to a 66% to 72% collective lower in internet greenhouse gasoline emissions by 2035 in contrast with 1990 ranges. Europe has seen a swift rise in renewable vitality, up sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put the continent’s pure gasoline provides in jeopardy.
The EU has additionally made waves by extending its carbon pricing guidelines past its borders.
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, scheduled to start in January 2026, would be the first system to cost for the local weather affect of imported items coming into Europe from nations that don’t have carbon costs much like the EU’s. The measure, meant to even the enjoying subject for EU industries, units a world precedent for linking carbon emissions to commerce.
Nevertheless, the EU’s local weather plans are additionally going through some headwinds. Its parliament is shifting towards softening new company sustainability necessities after strain from corporations. And it might face calls from some member nations to delay a brand new carbon market meant to chop emissions from street transportation and buildings, Politico reported.
The EU has pledged to mobilize as much as 300 billion Euros (about US$350 billion) to help the worldwide clear vitality transition in growing nations.
The UK, Japan, and Australia submitted their most formidable targets thus far. All three put them on observe to succeed in net-zero emissions by 2050, that means any greenhouse gases they emit will likely be offset by tasks that keep away from carbon emissions or take away carbon from the ambiance.
In Australia, Queensland’s latest announcement that it could lengthen present coal energy plant use to the 2030s and 2040s could sluggish nationwide progress. However Queensland additionally helps scaling up renewable vitality and remains to be aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050.
Norway dedicated to cut back its greenhouse gasoline emissions by at the least 70% by 2035 in contrast with 1990 ranges, which might align with the Paris Settlement objective to maintain world emissions beneath 1.5 levels Celsius (2.7 levels Fahrenheit). Nevertheless, it plans to stay a significant oil and gasoline exporter.
Notably, many growing nations additionally stepped up their commitments.
Brazil pledged a internet emissions discount of 59% to 67% by 2035 and is sustaining its 2050 net-zero goal. The federal government additionally drew criticism for approving plans for oil exploration close to the mouth of the Amazon River.
Free using and taking cowl behind the US
Nevertheless, whereas some new local weather commitments sign necessary momentum within the battle towards local weather change, the tug-of-war between world ambition to sluggish local weather change and strategic self-interests was palpable on the New York summit. The responses to Trump’s remarks revealed each veiled critiques and deceleration of local weather motion by some governments.
China criticized backsliding by some nations, with out naming names.
Brazil used the summit to name out nations that have been late in submitting their up to date local weather commitments. Solely a few third had submitted their up to date pledges at that time.
Whereas it’s troublesome to parse out particular person nation motivations—financial stress, wars, and political affect can all play a job—many students fear that U.S. backsliding will lead different nations to cut back their local weather commitments, and a few latest pledges seem to again this up.
Many petroleum-producing nations missed the U.N. pledge deadline. Qatar, which just lately gifted the U.S. a jet aircraft for Trump’s use and has an economic system largely bolstered by the oil and gasoline business, has not up to date its pledge since 2021. The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council’s common emissions discount goal is even decrease than Qatar’s, at round 21.6% by 2030.
Equally, Argentina, among the many world’s prime holders of shale oil and gasoline reserves, has not launched its up to date commitments. Progress on its earlier dedication has been undermined by political shifts since President Javier Milei’s election in 2023.
Milei initially vowed to desert the 2030 agenda completely and withdraw from the Paris Settlement, although his administration later backtracked. His dismissal of local weather change as a “socialist lie” has aligned Argentina carefully with Trump, culminating in a just lately deliberate US$20 billion support package deal from the U.S. to Argentina and elevating questions on whether or not Argentina’s local weather stance displays real coverage or geopolitical technique.
Additionally noticeably absent are commitments from India, Mexico, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia. Angola weakened its local weather pledge, citing an absence of worldwide funding.
A brand new option to make local weather commitments?
Whereas many nations are promising progress to cut back greenhouse gasoline emissions, the commitments formally submitted as of Oct. 20 have been nonetheless far beneath the extent wanted to maintain world temperatures from rising by 2 C (3.6 F), not to mention 1.5 C.
Nations’ new local weather pledges–generally known as nationally decided contributions, or NDCs–as of Oct. 20, 2025, compiled by ClimateWatch, have been nonetheless removed from retaining world warming underneath 2 C (3.6 F), not to mention 1.5 C (2.7 F). The whole contains 62 nations that had submitted pledges, together with a U.S. pledge submitted earlier than the Trump administration took workplace. It doesn’t embrace China’s introduced pledge or the European Union’s anticipated pledge. [Chart: ClimateWatch, CC BY 4.0]
To assist increase nationwide efforts and accountability, Brazil has proposed a brand new method it calls a globally decided contribution. In contrast to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol framework, which set fastened, country-specific emission discount targets primarily based on historic baselines, or the 2015 Paris Settlement’s pledge-as-you-can system, it could set up world targets aligned with the Paris Settlement’s temperature targets.
So, a globally decided contribution would possibly state, for instance, that the world will triple its renewable vitality manufacturing and reverse deforestation by 2030. A goal like that offers nations a clearer path of motion. The brand new format would additionally enable metropolis and state actions to be counted individually, growing incentives for them to behave.
Because the host of the COP30 local weather talks Nov. 10-21, 2025, Brazil is uniquely positioned to champion this idea. Within the absence of U.S. management, the proposal might provide a uncommon alternative for nations to collectively strengthen commitments and reshape treaty language in a manner by no means seen earlier than—leaving open the chance for progress.
Wila Mannella, a analysis assistant and graduate scholar in environmental research at USC, contributed to this text.
Shannon Gibson is a professor of environmental research, political science, and worldwide relations on the USC Dornsife School of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
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