Even with TikTok’s future within the U.S. seemingly secured, advertiser confidence hasn’t adopted go well with. Some entrepreneurs are already planning, they anecdotally advised Digiday, to cut back their spending there subsequent yr.
There’s nonetheless an excessive amount of uncertainty round who will oversee the app and the way it is going to be run for advertisers to justify greater bets. And it’ll keep that method till there’s extra readability on what comes subsequent.
“A brand new, U.S.-based model of TikTok would have to be vetted and understood earlier than advertisers really feel assured investing massive quantities of promoting {dollars} within the platform, even when it maintains TikTok’s core performance,” stated Courtney Werpy, affiliate director of efficiency media at Collective Measures.
For now, what entrepreneurs know is murky at finest. TikTok’s U.S. operations, that are nonetheless wholly owned by ByteDance, will proceed to deal with revenue-generating companies like promoting and e-commerce, in line with experiences. In the meantime, a brand new U.S. primarily based three way partnership, majority owned by American buyers, will management the app’s consumer knowledge and oversee retraining of the algorithm licensed from ByteDance.
And that’s the place the questions start — who will lead the app within the U.S., how will or not it’s ruled and can the shift will have an effect on efficiency. Thus far, TikTok’s reps haven’t provided a lot readability on any of the logistics round its future U.S. existence, however as a substitute proceed to stay calm, cool, and push entrepreneurs to spend extra subsequent yr.
As Jellyfish’s world evp paid social, Shamsul Chowdhury put it, there’s a dialog for each the brief and long-term impacts. However now might be the worst time to have any uncertainty as a result of it’s This autumn — the largest quarter of the yr. Arguably extra so for his crew’s retail purchasers who presently spend fairly a little bit of finances on TikTok, although he didn’t specify figures.
“Within the brief time period, purchasers are pondering, if this new U.S. TikTok launches this quarter ought to they be spending the identical quantity of finances that was initially deliberate for TikTok? In all probability not,” Chowdhury stated. “Lengthy-term, if this new platform doesn’t carry out in addition to the present TikTok, will they wish to proceed to speculate there? Some advertisers will see the outcomes and worth of it. Others will turn out to be extra conservative and revert to the tried and examined Google and Meta platforms.”
David Abbey, CEO of AI-powered influencer workflow and administration platform Endlss had an analogous take. From his perspective, if the platform fractures right into a U.S.-only ecosystem or the brand new algorithm adjustments how content material performs, each manufacturers and creators are going to really feel the ache quick.
“The second engagement or discoverability dips, the {dollars} transfer,” he stated. “If creators begin dropping attain or the platform hits technical turbulence in the course of the transition, budgets will pivot quick to Instagram and YouTube Shorts.”
That’s to not say advertisers received’t proceed to spend money on TikTok proper now in the event that they’re seeing constructive outcomes. It’s the long-term planning that’s nonetheless an enormous query mark.
“Constructing campaigns round TikTok in 2026 requires extra readability in regards to the U.S. app,” Foundation Applied sciences’ consumer technique and insights accomplice Colleen Fielder stated. “The identical warning applies to influencer advertising and marketing. We’d seemingly pause the spend as soon as we get nearer to the precise date of the transition after which wade in fastidiously as the brand new model is adopted for U.S. customers.”
Whereas advertisers are nicely versed in contingency planning, it’s nonetheless tough to find out which avenue to take when there is no such thing as a assure that TikTok U.S. will carry out identically to the present app.
Brainlabs chief product officer, Adam Edwards, who confirmed that roughly 13% of the company’s social spend over the past 12 months has gone to TikTok, stated that if the transition adjustments efficiency, his crew will reallocate budgets accordingly.
“It’s laborious to inform if we pull out utterly as a result of it depends upon how severely efficiency is impacted,” he stated. “If the platform in the end turns into too dangerous, we’ll should peel away and assess as extra information turns into out there.”
TikTok’s U.S. advert income
Whether or not TikTok likes it or not, the platform depends on its U.S. advert income, given it’s the platform’s largest market.
Based on eMarketer’s September 2025 forecast, TikTok’s U.S. advert income is predicted to rake in $14.03 billion this yr, rising 22.3% to $17.17 billion subsequent yr, and an extra 24.8% improve to $21.43 billion in 2027.
For context, in 2024, TikTok’s world advert income was round $26.42 billion, whereas its U.S. advert income accounted for round 47% of that, reaching $12.29 billion, per eMarketer.
Equally, again in March, WARC forecast that offered a U.S. ban is averted this yr, TikTok is forecast to earn $11.8 billion in U.S. advert income in 2025, rising to $13.4 billion in 2026.
Based on business knowledgeable, social media and creator financial system (and former eMarketer vp) Jasmine Enberg, it wouldn’t be shocking to see advert spend dip across the transition, particularly if multinational manufacturers have to separate or pivot their methods.
“If the brand new [U.S.] TikTok can proceed to drive the identical outcomes for advertisers, it’s seemingly that advert {dollars} will in the end comply with,” she stated. “Some advertisers may even see the transition as a second to realize first-mover-advantage on what may primarily be a brand new app, although that’s unlikely to offset pullbacks or pauses by main manufacturers.”
U.S. ban or U.S. app — neither are TikTok’s solely drawback
Whereas TikTok’s stoic, enterprise as common strategy has been a hit for the platform all through its authorized woes, there are nonetheless different challenges on the horizon.
Meta rushed out its feed of AI movies referred to as Vibes throughout the Meta AI app on Sept. 25, whereas OpenAI launched its personal standalone app of AI-generated movies referred to as Sora on Sept. 30. The latter recorded greater than 1 million downloads in lower than 5 days, making it the primary app on Apple’s app retailer in early October, regardless of nonetheless being an invite-only app, presently solely out there within the U.S. and Canada.
“Sora is a threat to TikTok within the U.S. and all over the place,” stated Jim Louderback, editor and CEO of Contained in the Creator Financial system publication. “It makes TikTok much less priceless as a result of much less time shall be spent on the app.”
Finally fewer eyeballs, means much less curiosity from advertisers. As eMarketer reported in June, U.S. TikTok utilization and time spent through any system has been on the decline, averaging at 52 minutes per day this yr, which marked a 6.9% lower year-over-year. Utilization is predicted to dip once more to 50 minutes in 2026, and additional to 48 in 2027. Although to its credit score, that is nonetheless larger than Instagram (35 minutes per day) and Fb (half-hour per day) this yr, eMarketer reported.
Nonetheless, possibly Sora and Vibes don’t turn out to be TikTok’s primary rivals. Or possibly they do. However what they’ve performed is offered the platforms with a playbook for construct a extremely participating feed round AI-generated content material, and monetize it.
TikTok didn’t reply to Digiday’s request for remark.
