Firefly Aerospace’s lander has been to the moon, however that is no assure the inventory will soar.
Firefly Aerospace (FLY -16.87%) simply pulled off its second-most spectacular launch of the 12 months.
The most spectacular launch got here in January, when the corporate despatched its new uncrewed Blue Ghost module to the moon. The mission’s success gave Firefly bragging rights as the primary U.S. firm to execute a totally profitable gentle lunar touchdown (that’s, touchdown with out inflicting severe harm to the module). It additionally generated an enormous wave of curiosity within the firm.
That curiosity is clearly nonetheless white-hot, as a result of Firefly’s Thursday IPO launched the corporate onto the Nasdaq at a valuation of $6.3 billion. Can it rocket even greater? Or will it fall again to earth?
Picture supply: Getty Photographs.
What Firefly truly does
Followers of the canceled-way-too-soon area Western Firefly will likely be unhappy to study that the corporate’s title is not truly associated to the TV collection. As an alternative, it is a title Firefly founder Tom Markusic — a former SpaceX and Virgin Galactic (SPCE -9.21%) engineer — chosen to embody a hypothetical future by which rocket launches are as widespread within the evening sky as fireflies.
Certainly, Firefly Aerospace has gone all-in on making launches extra frequent and extra accessible. It developed the Alpha rocket, a smaller, lighter rocket manufactured from carbon fiber composites that launched a satellite tv for pc into orbit with simply 24 hours’ discover in 2023. Whereas the Alpha is actually lighter (and thus, inexpensive to launch) than most different industrial rockets, the roughly one-ton payload capability is considerably restrictive: Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander, for instance, was too heavy for the Alpha rocket and needed to be launched utilizing a SpaceX Falcon 9.
Firefly can also be engaged on the Elytra orbital automobile and lunar imaging service Ocula. The corporate has 9 deliberate non-test missions via 2029: 5 for NASA, one for the U.S. Area Power, and three for industrial purchasers, for a complete present venture backlog of $1.1 billion.
Why its inventory may take off…
With extra firms (and folks) heading to area, demand for cheaper spaceflight is more likely to skyrocket (no pun meant). As an organization providing a extra inexpensive rocket that has already had profitable launches, Firefly is properly forward of many would-be rivals.
Moreover, Firefly is receiving funding and assist from trade heavyweights together with Lockheed Martin (LMT -1.19%) and L3Harris (LHX -1.52%). In Could, Firefly acquired a $50 million funding from Northrop Grumman (NOC -1.03%). Being within the good graces of such main aerospace gamers is a giant benefit for the start-up, each financially and reputationally.
As we speak’s industrial area trade is a reasonably crowded place, with firms huge and small jockeying for restricted funds and contracts. Nevertheless, early success tends to encourage funding, which fuels future success. Firefly appears to have all the appropriate elements, together with an energetic contract pipeline, main trade partnerships, and some profitable early missions. If it may well stick with it, it could possibly be the following SpaceX…or perhaps a fair larger success story.
…and why it may not
For an 11-year-old firm, Firefly has had a checkered previous, which incorporates IP points, a 2017 chapter, authorities intervention over nationwide safety issues, and an abrupt July 2024 CEO departure (present CEO Jason Kim took the helm in October 2024). In the meantime, non-public fairness agency AE Industrial Companions controls the corporate with a 40.9% stake; the agency’s workers presently maintain 5 of Firefly’s 9 board seats. Because the IPO prospectus notes, “AE Industrial Companions controls us, and its pursuits might battle with ours or yours sooner or later.”
That is…rather a lot, and we’ve not even gotten to the corporate’s financials.
As a result of it is an IPO, we do not actually have a full quarterly monetary report from Firefly but. However its IPO prospectus reveals a internet lack of about $125 million within the first half of 2025, together with damaging free money stream of about $97.5 million, with simply $205.3 million in money on its stability sheet and $173.6 million in debt. Not a reasonably image.
Now, it is common for brand new start-ups to have excessive internet losses and damaging free money stream, however given the dearth of context and particulars, it is price asking: Does this enterprise deserve a $6.3 billion valuation? How about $8.4 billion, which the corporate briefly hit on its first day of public buying and selling Thursday?
To me, that appears fairly costly for an unproven enterprise with opaque financials in a aggressive, high-risk trade that is managed by a enterprise capital agency and led by a model new CEO. Earlier than I would purchase shares, I would need to not less than see a number of quarterly reviews to get a clearer image of how the corporate operates. It will nonetheless be a dangerous guess, however proper now it feels too dangerous to purchase.
