These are the metrics you ought to be listening to because the AI firm prepares its earnings launch.
Maybe essentially the most fascinating inventory to purchase out there right now is Palantir Applied sciences (PLTR -2.46%). The corporate, which is utilizing its synthetic intelligence (AI) platforms to fully alter how governments and industrial companies function, is up roughly 480% within the final 12 months alone. Thus far in 2025, the inventory is up virtually 110%.
Together with that exceptional run-up is a narrative of obscenely excessive valuation. Traders are betting large on Palantir to the tune of some hardly ever seen valuations, similar to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) nearing 700 and a ahead P/E of 270.
Palantir has its second-quarter earnings name scheduled on Aug. 4, after the market’s closing bell. If it might probably keep its progress momentum, its inventory will proceed to soar. Nonetheless, a slowdown in progress might be devastating and let the air out of the Palantir balloon.
This is what traders needs to be waiting for as the corporate prepares its Q2 report.
Picture supply: Palantir Applied sciences.
Palantir’s progress numbers
Palantir is seeing critical progress because it unveiled its Synthetic Intelligence Platform (AIP) within the spring of 2023. AIP makes use of generative AI to permit customers to enter instructions and prolonged prompts into Palantir’s highly effective community in an effort to get real-time insights and predict the outcomes of occasions.
For presidency customers of Palantir’s Gotham platform, it is now a lot simpler to command Palantir to faucet into satellite tv for pc networks to find out the place opposing navy belongings are situated, predict the outcomes of operations, make suggestions, and supply insights as real-time battlefield conditions evolve. Exterior of the navy facet, Palantir’s platform might be serving to to optimize and orchestrate workflows so customers could make higher choices all through the federal government.
Business customers of Palantir’s Foundry platform can use AIP to assist them handle provide chains, optimize operations, crunch healthcare information, and cut back manufacturing prices.
The corporate is seeing fast progress in each platforms. Whereas Palantir has lengthy been acknowledged as a key authorities contractor, its industrial contracts within the first quarter had been up 33% from a 12 months in the past, reaching $397 million. A lot of that progress got here from U.S.-based shoppers, the place income jumped 71% from a 12 months in the past to achieve $255 million. Authorities income was up a whopping 45% on a year-over-year foundation to $487 million, with the lion’s share ($373 million) coming from U.S. authorities contracts.
That is leaving Palantir flush with money. The corporate ended the primary quarter with $370 million in adjusted free money circulation, up from $149 million a 12 months in the past, and $5.4 billion in money and money equivalents with zero debt.
Key metrics to think about on Aug. 4
Whereas Palantir’s progress numbers are spectacular, it is onerous to say that the corporate is pretty valued right now. Any firm with a P/E ratio over 600 has far overextended its truthful worth — and that is OK if you happen to imagine, as I do, that Palantir is a transformative firm with a real worth that also hasn’t been acknowledged. However that perception is not going to guard you if Palantir disappoints traders when it stories its Q2 earnings.
How would that occur? There are a number of metrics I will be .
Buyer rely: Palantir’s industrial buyer rely grew by 46% within the final 12 months and by 9% on a quarterly foundation. It must maintain that momentum going by signing some large offers. Within the first quarter, Palantir inked 139 offers of a minimum of $1 million, and 31 of these had been price greater than $10 million.
Income progress: Palantir must maintain the cash coming in. Keep in mind, industrial work rose 33% on a year-over-year foundation within the first quarter, and authorities work was up 45%. A slowdown can be impactful to the Palantir inventory worth. For the report, Palantir issued steerage for second-quarter income in a spread of $934 million and $938 million. The midpoint of that might be a 47% general enhance from a 12 months in the past. That is an enormous quantity, however I feel it is achievable.
Remaining efficiency obligations (RPO): That is the backlog — the quantity of income that Palantir has locked in by contracts it signed with authorities and industrial shoppers, however the work hasn’t been delivered or paid for but. Palantir’s backlog on the finish of the primary quarter was $1.9 billion and has been steadily rising during the last two years.
Quarter
Complete RPO
Q1 2023
$936 million
Q2 2023
$968 million
Q3 2023
$988 million
This autumn 2023
$1.24 billion
Q1 2024
$1.3 billion
Q2 2024
$1.37 billion
Q3 2024
$1.57 billion
This autumn 2024
$1.73 billion
Q1 2025
$1.9 billion
Supply: Palantir Applied sciences
Palantir’s backlog is accelerating, and the corporate must proceed to develop its RPO at a good clip. Something under $2.05 billion might be a purple flag, and something above $2.15 billion might be an enormous sign that Palantir’s progress story remains to be cooking.
put money into Palantir right now
I am an unabashed fan of Palantir, however I am not going to be including to my place this week. Should you’re seeking to make investments, I recommend a dollar-cost averaging technique that may defend you from volatility if the inventory drops however will nonetheless provide you with some advantages ought to the inventory proceed to point out energy.
No matter how Palantir does in its report, I am holding the inventory as a result of I imagine that it’ll proceed to ship — regardless of its steep valuation and excessive expectations from Wall Road.
